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Busting Dead Cert Myth

If you’re someone who has been involved in football betting for quite some time, you’d be already aware of a great multitude of websites offering the so-called football betting strategies or tips for maximizing your betting returns.

To be frank, you’d be better off staying away from misleading terms like “guaranteed winner”, “banker”, “sure bet”, or “dead cert”. Many of these tipsters strategically incorporate these terms into their website URLs, hoping that it’d help their search engine rankings and enable them to grab more eyeballs for their portals. Falling for any such gimmicks can be highly frustrating, especially if you’ve been punting for a long time now.

Without delving into the laws of statistics and mathematics, and opening up a huge can of worms, let’s state one indisputable fact pretty clearly - There’s nothing out there that can help you surely determine the outcome of a particular football game.

We’ll specifically look into the dead cert myth and would state right away that if such outcomes did exist, there would hardly be any bookmakers out there to cover our bets. Many a times you may run into self-proclaiming, pro level tipster websites offering some long-kept secret method for picking the guaranteed winners. They’re all usually a farce. In fact, many countries have made it illegal for websites to make any such misleading claims.

Having interacted with seasoned punters with decades of soccer punting experience under their belts, we can categorically tell you that the notion of dead cert isn’t completely false, but it’s definitely a contradiction in itself. If there were any chances of a particular football game’s outcome to be guaranteed, there would be no point in teams making all that effort to struggle against each other for a whole 90 minutes on a field. In addition, bookmakers would also be foolish to provide bets on games whose results were already fixed. It’s actually pretty scary to see the number of reasonably educated people who fall for such claims made by the so-called experts.

Let’s go back to 2 very important football games in the past that prove whatever we’ve stated above:
1. Glasgow Celtic vs. Ross County, played and April 10, 2010 in the Scottish Cup. Ross County won 2 – 0.
In this game, the English Premier League giants Glasgow Celtic made an unceremonious exit from the Scottish Cup, by getting beaten by the Ross County, a first division side. It was one of the biggest upsets witnessed in the Scottish football history. A great multitude of multi bets or accumulators were torn up in disgust by the punters.
2. PSV Eindhoven vs. Sparta Rotterdam, played on February 21, 2010 in the Dutch league. The match ended up in a draw, with a 1 – 1 score line.

The home side was so sure of winning that the bets were priced extremely low at 1.09 by the bookmakers in their favour. What more, PSV was on a winning streak and had won 11 of its league games in Eindhoven. They were up against an average Sparta side that had lost 12 of its games that season, and were almost on the verge of relegation. What added insult to the injury was that the Sparta Rotterdam scored the equalizer three minutes into the injury time!

Not only do such major upsets ruin a large number of accumulator bets, they also significantly highlight the fact that you can never ever correctly predict the outcome of a football game and the bets placed on it.